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...right, so when I was playing Cordial Minuet by picking randomly using a computer program I wrote, then that wasn't a game of chance?
Hmm... so would you say then that that paragraph could be interpreted to mean the my example Rock Paper Scissors website would not be considered a game of chance?
cullman's chess analogy is pretty useful here. Likewise, a totally random CM column picker is very easy to beat on average. A random RPS player cannot be beat on average.
I know that random play in Cordial Minuet can be beaten fairly easily. But, I also played a lot of games early on where I picked randomly to test this out. And while I did lose money on those games, wouldn't those games still be considered illegal by the letter of the law? And if so, might Jason be considered culpable for enabling me to play them? I'm not trying to be a wet blanked here, but I just want everyone to understand that if Cordial Minuet ends up in a real legal fight, even the smallest technicalities might end up being used against it.
I am certain that whether or not a game is a game of skill or chance is defined by the rules of the game rather than instances of its play. Your example could be applied to other existing real money skill games that have not had legal issues.
I'm not sure, I think it doesn't come up a lot because in most skill based games playing randomly wouldn't be effective, so no one would ever play randomly on purpose. In a game like Cordial Minuet where random play can be effective, though not necessarily more effective than deliberate play, it may actually cause legal issues. Say you were to start a website where you could Rock Paper Scissors for money against a computer programmed to play randomly. Rock Paper Scissors is technically classified as a skill based game, but in this case the implementation is practically the same as a website that let you bet on a coin flip for money. But a website where you bet on a coin flip would almost certainly be classified as a game of chance, so shouldn't the Rock Paper Scissors site be classified the same way?
I completely disagree with this. I could write a program that makes random but legal chess moves for me, and play chess using that program. That doesn't add an element of chance to the game of chess, just to the way I am playing it.
True, but the question is, if you know the moves the other player is using are not their own, but rather moves generated randomly by a computer, is it legal by the letter of the law to bet money on the outcome? That is a tricky question that I'm not sure has ever really been answered.
I'm trying to avoid things that add an extra layer of complication to an otherwise standard betting structure that everyone understands.
But the tribute is already an extra layer of complication that affects the betting system. I think changing things so the tribute is taken from the player that folds actually makes things more understandable than just having chips deducted in the background in a sort of opaque way.
Isn't this similar to a forced bet of 1 chip every round?
Not really. It still makes sense to fold if you don't think you will win, or else you might lose even more than the extra chip you would pay to fold. Calling is still more expensive than folding, because after you call, folding later would be even more expensive. The extra chip just means that you have more motivation to call a raise even when you don't have a clear advantage. And it may often happen that neither player has enough confidence to raise even one chip after a pick. That's the advantage of the simultaneous betting system.
What's the point of having that folding fee go to the house?
I can't speak for fuwjax, but personally I believe the advantage would be that having the extra chip be the tribute would mean you wouldn't gain any extra chips by pressuring the other player to fold. I think that is required to maintain fairness, or else the winning player would be gaining one more chip than they actually risked by raising if the other player folded.
Still, in a simultaneous decision game, it is unclear how a player would exploit such an advantage without also opening themselves up to being counter-exploited.
The main advantage for having a layout with higher variance would be that you would on average have better information about whether you had won or lost at the end of a picking round than the other player. In terms of the actual picking you can't really exploit a board layout until the second round, and even then only if the other player picks columns that leave them open to exploitation. So there may not actually be a real advantage there one way or the other.
To play a bit of devil's advocate, even if you do change the game so that every board layout is played from both perspectives, would that really make a difference? A lawyer could still argue that Cordial Minuet has an element of chance that affects the outcome if they could find a way to prove that the first player to get a board layout has an advantage over the second player. Which I think they could in at least some of the cases, because if the first player to get a layout wins a significant number of chips from the other player, they will have leverage when playing the next round with the board layout rotated that the other player didn't get to have when they were playing the board from their original perspective. Lawyers are tricky like that.
But actually, if I were a lawyer, I would focus on Cordial Minuet's betting as the primary element of chance. Because betting involves valuing your current position at the point when you have to bet, and most of the time you don't know for certain how the strength of your position compares to that of the other player, you could argue that you are placing a wager based on an element that is controlled by chance. Because of the shared uncertainty both players have regarding how their column picks affect the score they will get, neither player is truly in control of the outcome of picking. And therefore, it would be fair in a sense to say, that there is an element of randomness in the score you get, even though the score was technically generated by a decision shared by both players. Can you honestly claim that there is no element of luck in the score you get when it is influenced by elements neither player controls completely? And what happens if one of the players uses a random number generator to pick their columns? Surely that would have to count as an element of chance, right? Even if you as the designer can't control how columns are picked, the mere fact that they can be picked randomly could be interpreted as an element of chance.
I just think it is naive to assume changing how board layouts are given to players will really make that much difference from a legal perspective. It probably wouldn't hurt to to try and remove as much chance from the game as possible, but in the end there are elements of chance in Cordial Minuet that can't be changed. I think in a real court case, Cordial Minuet would have to fight an uphill battle no matter what you do. Especially if the prosecutor bothers to read the forum records, which refer to playing Cordial Minuet as "gambling" all over the place. That just plain doesn't look good. I hate to say this, but if you are not prepared to fight a legal battle regarding how Cordial Minuet should be classified, maybe you shouldn't be doing this in the first place...
Interesting idea... I like it actually. I like it a lot.
Edit:
Right, so after giving it some thought, I think this is pretty much the best idea I have heard to make Cordial Minuet less conservative. And actually, I think the cost of folding never has to be more than one chip. If the cost of folding was a tribute of one chip that neither player would get back, it means you can pressure the other player to commit to a round that they might not have complete faith in simply by raising one chip. It makes no more sense to fold than it does to call, as long as you believe there is still a chance you can win. But now you have committed two chips to the game, so the cost of folding is now three. So in the next round, if the other player still believes in the strength of their position, they can raise to three, and it puts you under even more pressure to call. For every betting round, the option of raising by one puts the other player in a position where calling seems more appealing than folding if they have any reasonable chance of winning. Meaning that it shouldn't be too hard to get another player to commit five chips to a game. And once they have committed at least two chips to the game, even a conservative player may call a raise that is more than one. It's brilliant actually. Seriously Jason, do this.
But that would create the problem of players constantly leaving games in order to gain an advantage. The problem of players leaving games early is already bad enough. Giving them such a huge incentive to do so would just make things 100 times worse.
Having the numbers go only from 1 to 6 would mean you'd consistently have a 1 in 6 chance of knowing your number is the highest possible, which would probably just encourage players to fish for high numbers even more than they already are. But I don't think rotating the board is a good idea either, because it just seems like a lazy solution.
The thing is, I don't actually believe the randomness of the board is a problem as far as gambling laws are concerned. You could think of variances in the board layout as a handicap that fluctuates randomly (but still fairly). A fair game of skill is still a fair game of skill regardless of there being a handicap involved. As long as both players agree on the handicap, and both players still have the ability win based on their skill, it shouldn't matter what the handicap is. Having the handicap be random might be somewhat of a gray area, but as long as the handicap of any given player averages out the same as any other player, and as long as the handicap is never so bad that it guarantees a win for one player, I think you have a very legitimate argument that it should not be cause to classify Cordial Minuet as a game of chance. In fact, the ability to recognize how the properties of the board layout may affect the outcome of a game is one of the most skillful elements of Cordial Minuet.
Besides, let's face it, Cordial Minuet is in a gray area no matter what you do. It's a game that by the letter of the law should not be considered a gambling game, but still has many of the same elements that gambling games have. If Cordial Minuet becomes successful enough to attract the attention of the legal system, you would be amazed how they can creatively interpret the law to make cases that exist in a gray area go their way. You'd probably be fighting legal battles for at least a decade, even if you did eventually win.
Think of it this way. If the randomness of the board layout is the single factor that ends up determining if Cordial Minuet is a game of skill or not, you are probably still safe if you just wait until someone actually complains before doing something, which may never even happen. Because any change you could make to remove that randomness would probably make Cordial Minuet a worse game, so I think we're all better of if you can avoid the issue entirely. But personally I think it's very unlikely that this would be the one thing that would save you from a legal battle. If someone important decides they don't like Cordial Minuet, it's going to happen eventually...
Contrast that with the great board games, which almost always have NO options at all.
Go is the best board game ever conceived of in my opinion, and even go players can't settle on the best komi (handicap for the second player)...
Anyway, I need some input here: if I'm going to tweak this and measure the results, what should I be measuring? Percentage of rounds where someone folds? Percentage of rounds that make it to reveal? Game length in seconds?
Hmm... Well, it's kind of subjective isn't it? Ideally the right chip count should be the one players actually like the most. Which is tough because I think any chip count is going to alienate at least a few players. I don't think a metric like how often players fold is going to tell you much about that. I think if there is anything that will tell you how well a chip count is working, it will be the average amount of time spent playing by all the players who sign on for a given day. I think that if more players like the chip count, it stands to reason they will be having more fun when they play with it, and will want to keep playing for a longer amount of time. Maybe look at the ratio of the total players to the total tribute too, since that will be a good indicator of how much money is actually moving around, and besides that it will tell you what is the most profitable chip count is for the person running the server.
Glad to hear it.
So... this is a very deep subject that in many ways cuts to the heart of these kinds of games.
I do worry that if we pushed down to, say, 20 coins, that players would respond to the added risk and reduced skill depth by reducing their buy-ins. Maybe go from $1.00 games to 20-cent games so that the amount risked per round is the same as before.
The average buy-in for games is already pretty low, how much lower could it get? I mean, I have never heard of a gambling game before where it was so difficult to convince people to even bet $1.00. I think in a way, the skill depth is too high. Unskilled players are too scared of skilled players because they will have no chance whatsoever to win, and skilled played are too afraid of other skilled players because they don't want to lose precious money when it is so hard and time consuming to earn it in the first place. Reducing the skill depth may be the only way to get over this hurdle and get players actually moving money around. Besides, there is still plenty of skill depth in the picking to make up for what would be lost in the betting. Cordial Minuet is not poker, after all.
But anyway, my job as a designer is to figure this out. I don't want to throw it at players as yet another option for them to pick every game.
I'm not usually one for quotations, but there is a particular quotation that I always keep in the back of my head when designing a computer program:
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
It is one of the truest things I have ever heard uttered by another person. The temptation when designing something is always to make it as simple and elegant as possible. You never want a design to be cluttered by confusing and unnecessary complexity. Especially if it's something someone else will have to see, or even interact with. But you will notice that in spite of a world of programmers, many of whom aspire to this principle, most games still have more than one configuration option. I mean, just look at a game like StarCraft... The idea that you should be able to pick a single stack size that would be better than any other may just be one of those cases where you are making things too simple. If having different stack sizes adds variety and enjoyment to the game, then the price of simplicity may very well be too high.
Edit: Another question you might want to ask yourself as a designer, is do you even have the necessary information to determine what stack size works the best for the majority of players without testing it in some way?
I am completely okay with having configurable antes too. There are some reasons why I think changing the chip count vs changing the ante is a more elegant solution. Like for example, with a configurable chip count you never end up in a situation where you still have chips but not enough to actually play a round. But in the end allowing the ante to be changed still solves the problem just as well, and if it's what people prefer, who am I to argue? However I do think it's important the ante be a configurable option because I think we need to learn more about how different antes change the dynamics of the game before settling on an ideal amount. And maybe if different ante amounts do bring out different aspects of the game and favor different styles of playing, the diversity that having a configurable ante adds will be too good to give up.
Right, well, 100 chip count games do have their good points. Although I have to warn you that bluffing in the first round will typically have devastating consequences if the other player knows what they are doing (which I do ). But this is why I say, let people pick their own chip count and let the market decide. Really the worst thing that can happen is we will learn more about what does or doesn't make Cordial Minuet work.
Sounds good to me. Though I still wish you'd consider only allowing you to play another person once, because I really think adding pressure to not leave a game makes things more interesting.
Look, I know this has been debated a lot already, but the longer I play Cordial Minuet, the more convinced I am that this is an issue that needs to be fixed. I am referring of course, to the fact that high level matches in Cordial Minuet tend to go nowhere. This is especially a problem given that the longer you play Cordial Minuet, the more skilled you tend to become, and skilled players are likely going to be the main player base you will have to rely on to keep Cordial Minuet lively and active.
Let's face it, we all have played matches where we ended up quiting because the other player's style was frustratingly conservative. And really, why wouldn't you play conservatively? Cordial Minuet heavily favors conservative play. It is in fact, often effectively to just slow play someone until they start getting overconfident and betting too much, and then take them to the cleaners. In fact, I think virtually every successful player is currently using this tactic in one form or another. The cost of folding is so low, you can easily afford to fold for long enough to tell if a player is exploitable. And if not, it's easier to just move on and find a new opponent that is than to play someone you know will likely never give you an opportunity for serious profit. This ultimately makes the game frustrating and boring to play a lot of the time, and I think is a major contributor to the difficulty Cordial Minuet has had in building a player base. New players tend to figure out quickly how dangerous not playing conservatively can be, and they become frustrated with a game that punishes them for betting.
I think that this is the biggest obstacle to success that Cordial Minuet currently has, and it's something that needs to be addressed. I believe the best way to do this, is to decrease the chip count in a game of Cordial Minuet from 100 chips, to 10 chips. I know the idea of lowering the chip count has been dismissed in the past, but I'm bringing to the front again because my experience playing Cordial Minuet has convinced me that it is the only way to make the game work. The thing is, folding has to hurt, but right now it really just doesn't. I know there is the argument that this problem can be solved by just raising the stakes, but in practice how often have players actually been willing to raise the stakes so far? Well, other than Judge Doorman (and look at what happened to him). People are reluctant to raise the stakes because it exposes them to too much risk. Who here wants to risk their entire bankroll on one game of Cordial Minuet? And yet, in order the make folding cost even $0.10, you have to increase the stakes to $10.00. No one, (again, excepting Judge Doorman) is currently playing at these stakes. And even if you did, and you could reliably find other players who also did, it wouldn't matter. What do you care about $0.10 when you could win up to $10.00? What do you care about $1.00 when you could win $100.00? No matter how high the stakes are that you are playing for, 1/100 of that is never going to seem like a lot. The risk of getting drawn into a game where you could lose 100 times your ante is always going to seem much greater than just folding.
But then, why does a system with a lot of chips work so well in poker? Well, as I discussed earlier, poker is a game of uncertainty. Any time someone raises, especially before the flop, you know it's a shot in the dark. And since the odds any given player will know they have the best possible hand at any given time are so low, it encourages people to bet liberally to take advantage of the uncertainty of other players. You always know that it's improbable any given player has the best possible hand, so you almost always feel like you have room to pressure them. And they know that it's improbable you actually have the best possible hand so it's much more likely they will try and push back. Cordial Minuet is almost the opposite of this. The longer a match of Cordial Minuet goes on, the more each player knows about their chances of winning. This combined with the low cost of folding means that calling a raise is almost never actually worth it. Raising early in the game is too risky (bluffing in the first round is practically the most exploitable thing you can do), and raising at the end of the game will most likely result in the other player folding (unless you completely misread the strength of their position, which doesn't happen very much in games with experienced players). It is possible to set a player up for a loss by convincing them they have the edge in a close game when they actually don't, but that is just about the only way a significant amount of money will change hands between good players, and it doesn't happen nearly often enough.
With a 10 chip game, things would be completely different. All of a sudden, folding isn't nearly as attractive of an option. If you fold just 10 times, you have lost the match, and even getting a few chips behind puts you at a disadvantage. So you are under a lot of pressure to call. Smart players will still know when folding is their best option, but they will have to play games when the relative strength of their position is uncertain much more often. It also really helps to put emphasis on the picking game, because all of a sudden biding your time and fishing for a good number is not an option. If you only raise when you get a good number the other person can just fold anyway. But then again, why raise only when you have a good number when raising puts the other player under so much pressure? All of a sudden it seems like bluffing in the first round sometimes might not be such a bad idea. Of course, it's very likely 10 chip games will be short, usually ending after a few rounds when a player either loses an all in or becomes short stacked to the point that they want to reset the stakes. But I think this is actually a good thing because it encourages players to intermingle more. Often times it takes so long to find another player you end up wanting to keep playing them for a long time. But doing this also means that if a third player signs on, they will probably never see another player because the other people playing will just play the one game and quit when they are done. But if matches were faster, the third player would likely have to wait less than five minutes before seeing one of the other players open up a new match in order to keep playing.
The big problem with having shorter matches though, is that it does in many ways make the game more shallow. One of the best aspects of Cordial Minuet is that it let's you carefully build up the expectations of your opponent, only to betray them at just the right moment for a devastating reversal of fortune. You would to a certain extent lose that in a 10 chip game, and much more emphasis would be put on just picking the right columns. For that matter, I am not at all certain 10 chips is ideal. Maybe something like 20 chips would provide a better balance between making folding unattractive and allowing for careful methodological play. But the thing that is clear to me, is that 100 chip games don't work, and they are keeping Cordial Minuet from reaching it's potential.
So I propose the following. Allow players to set the chip count on their own games. Then we can all work together and figure out what chip count makes Cordial Minuet the most fun to play. And maybe there is no one answer. Maybe a 10 chip game is the most fun for some people, while a 20 chip game is more fun for others. Maybe most people will keep on playing 100 chip games after all. Fighting games let you change round limits and health levels, and doing so has many of the same consequences as changing the chip count in Cordial Minuet. While most people who play fighting games do prefer 3 round matches, many players enjoy having other options. And giving them those options doesn't really cost anything, so why not do it?
...I am utterly speechless. This is the kind of compulsive gambling that destroys people, and it's something I'm not willing to be a party to. I only play low stakes games for a reason. I'm not willing to bet enough to seriously damage another person by gambling. If I ever saw someone betting like cullman, I would have walked away very quickly. In Cordial Minuet, there is even less luck involved than I game like poker. Betting this kind of money without any experience is such an utterly foolish act, I am honestly having a hard time believing someone actually did it. I hope for your sake cullman, that you seriously have this kind of money to lose. And if you want to throw away your money on something, there are a lot of charities that could use it more than Nate (no offense Nate).
The time limit thing may still be problematic if a player decided to stall the game as soon as they had the lead. At least that's what I would do...
I say just have a fixed buy-in when you play your first tournament match with a warning screen to prevent players from accidentally buying into the tournament. I would also add a rule that doesn't allow you to play against the same person twice. This both discourages collusion (because the advantage you gain from colluding is offset by cost of the buy-in), and discourages running from matches (because once you run you will not have a chance to play the person again, lowering your potential winnings). That might actually make things really interesting because whenever you played against someone, you would have to weigh the risks of continuing to play them against the cost of leaving the match early.
That being said, it would still be possible to exploit this system with collusion. It would just require you to put up a bit more money at the start. But this is true of literally every non-bracketed tournament structure I can think of. You might be able to police things though, by carefully examining the winner's match records and looking for any signs of suspicious activity. The signs would be fairly obvious in most cases. For example, if someone was obviously throwing matches to another player, or if someone was playing against only players with no other match records, or if someone played most of their matches against new accounts (or accounts that hadn't been used much outside of tournaments), or if someone conveniently managed to play against the same set of other players and won in multiple different tournaments. There is no perfect solution to catch someone who is cheating, but if you police things as well as you can, you can at least make it very difficult to get away with.
Hmm... I think you might be onto something.
Collusion in this case is an unsolvable problem. It hasn't even been solved in situations like professional poker games, so I wouldn't expect to be able to solve it in an environment like this. For the entire first hour of the tournament that I was ahead, I kept thinking to myself how easy it would have been to win this tournament if I had just one other person working with me. I could have gotten ahead in few enough games that it would not even have looked that suspicious. I think the only thing you could do would be to adapt a more traditional tournament structure with brackets, but in my experience with fighting games, doing this kind of thing online is pretty hit and miss. A lot of times, less that half the people who sign up will even show up to play. You could have a tournament entry fee to help prevent that (and also seed the pot), but then you would get many fewer players. Personally, I would have been happy to pay a $10 fee to participate in a Cordial Minuet tournament worth $200, but I can't speak for everyone.
Huh, how do you know you were playing against him? Noone was even saying anything in the chat room.
I watched the tournament standings change at the end of my matches.
Thanks! Uh. I left a few slow tables because they weren't going anywhere. The key to winning this was convincing LOTS of people to all-in against their better judgement. And since it's time limited, there is a lot of pressure to all-in.
That's what I was doing too, but I really messed up by sitting out the first hour. By the time I started playing again, there were too many players who were willing to rest on their laurels and not take any big risks. I kept trying to get people to go all in, but jere was the only player who obliged me, and I pretty much broke even against him.