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#51 Re: Main Forum » Game Behavior: Clicking » 2015-04-28 15:46:06

I'll just keep using my current tactic of hovering back and forth between my guesses and using my brain to figure out "Oh, 26+27 < 26+30, so the high tick is for 30".

#52 Main Forum » Game Behavior: Clicking » 2015-04-21 15:22:23

LiteS
Replies: 9

Currently on rounds 2 and after, clicking on a red number will lock that number as your educated guess for your opponent's row/column choice. While useful, after playing for a few months of playing this functionality seems limited by one step. Current game behavior means hovering over unpicked numbers gives a preview of possible scores if you were to win that number, but if you click on a number for your opponent, the hover function is disabled. Re-enabling the hover function would require another iteration of prediction on the game (or two if two opponent numbers were selected), but I think it would be useful for advanced play.

I'm not sure how hard this would be to implement, perhaps it's too late in development for this suggestion. Is this something that the community would want to see?

zNu9dJ2.png

More detail: I'd like to see the graph on the right update with the possible scores if I predict my opponent has the 26 and the 27 on this board by clicking on them. The reason for this is I often find myself in situations where I'm betting on my opponent having a particular number, and if I am correct, that will change the possible scores for both players in future rounds. Obviously if I am incorrect I may end up in trouble.

#53 Re: Main Forum » Sample Amulet » 2015-04-17 13:53:15

Looks great. Can't wait to try to win one!

jasonrohrer wrote:

This scan doesn't capture what it looks like in your hand.  It shines like a brand new penny.

Hopefully you can get some nice photos of the finished amulets. Pictures can go a long way when it comes to marketing, as I'm sure you know. Please excuse me if you already know this, but I'd suggest setting up a light box to photograph them. There are plenty of resources online for this, here's one basic guide on jewelry photography.
http://www.mkdigitaldirect.com/tips/jew … _tips.html

#54 Re: Main Forum » Fourth test contest with MONEY prizes » 2015-04-16 21:55:29

jasonrohrer wrote:

But how do we deal with one person from winning more than one?  If you win a copper on day 1, are you blocked from winning gold on day 6?

A simple solution would be if someone wins copper day 1 and then gold day 6, extend the competition a day and have the day 1 copper be day 7's prize instead. This would mean a bit of a wait on the physical prize delivery, but digital prizes could still be delivered throughout the contest.

I think prompt, daily digital prize delivery during the contest will likely be good for the game's economy.

You could say "Win two coppers, trade for a silver while supplies last" and "silver and copper trade for a gold". Should work out fine as long as the digital money prize was structured so that double copper prize is less than or equal to silver prize. Just pay the winner the digital difference between the two prizes and you're not out any less when you return the copper to the pool. Problem here is the golds will likely be gobbled up early. Once they are (and later silvers), you'd have to mark those players as ineligible to win the remaining coppers.

All that said, I'm not sure if daily amulets is a great idea because of time zones, and I'm not sure if I like the idea of daily point resets. I think Josh will already have a hard enough time finding a game against an American cabal member, but that fight is pretty unavoidable.

#55 Re: Main Forum » Fourth test contest with MONEY prizes » 2015-04-16 16:06:33

Dan_Dan84 wrote:

One piece of input I will give: while clearly it is better to have a "cabal" than just "The Creator" to create special matches, as more people will encounter these matches, the concept is not quite as exciting. The idea of "This might be a game against Jason Rohrer, and if I win, I score special points" is very powerful. Playing against a faceless cabal... not quite as interesting.

This is true, and a little unfortunate. Marketing could help fix this. "Jason Rohrer and his Cabal" or something to that tune might sound better.

.. wrote:

For example, you could hand out two amulets per day of the contest rather than all 36 at the end.

Resetting everyone's score daily would encourage reckless play, but rewarding daily standings in a week long competition should not be too bad.

If the contest structure stayed the same except floored scores at 0, I think it's safe to say we have successfully eliminated all collusion problems associated with the previous contests. Regarding the "Long games win less coins" thing, while true, if we consider this a problem I think it is solved by increasing contest duration. You still only have to score a minimum of 50 coins twice to defeat a more reckless player (I'm assuming we're associating a score of 99 with reckless play).

If I were to make a prediction for the leaderboards of the contest, I'd say a few players will rush to the top, then stay there, sitting on their position unless someone manages to climb above them. Following Ghost Amount's telling of how the contest went for him, he was nervous about risking his earned coins, and was more concerned with holding them for a possible second place than even trying to catch Arbiter Expression's lead. Loss Aversion is real, and both GA and AE were rewarded for risking their position.

#56 Re: Main Forum » Fourth test contest with MONEY prizes » 2015-04-15 21:54:02

Cobblestone wrote:
claspa wrote:

I do understand what Cobblestone is saying. We played the first game of the contest against each other. It took us almost an hour to get a decisive win, which was 30% of the whole contest time.
I would like to see a some sort of modifier/compensation, but I cannot think of something good.

Exactly, ya. There were moments in our game where either of us could've left early and still come out ahead, but we played to the end and I don't think it's a bad idea to reward that.

What I was thinking is something along the lines of an ante of 20 would double a positive score or halve a negative one. So winning a longer game nets you a better score, or losing a longer game leaves you with less of a hole to climb out of. I'm not sure what the formula is exactly, but it would end up looking like:

Ante = Max Positive Score
1 = 99
10 = 149
20 = 198

Ante = Max Negative Score
1 = -99
10 = -75
20 = -50

I think what y'all are getting at is the tribute system as a whole "discourages" longer games and is in itself a different topic. The tribute system currently doesn't take a flat 10% from your winnings, instead it chips away money as the ante gets higher.

#57 Main Forum » The jarring feeling of leaving early » 2015-04-14 16:29:55

LiteS
Replies: 3

Regarding the look and feel of the game, I feel like the transition from "Leave" to the post-game recap screen happens a bit fast. Almost every action in CM requires a server response, meaning you'll be waiting at least a few milliseconds for your actions to get a reply. On top of that, the coin animations can take a few seconds, column/row painting happens smoothly, and new boards fade in and out gracefully. After clicking "Leave (pay 6)", the game snap-cuts to the recap screen without a fade from black.

How do y'all feel about this transition? Should the impression of leaving be left as is, abrupt and sudden, or should it feel more calculated with a fade out or fade in?

#58 Re: Main Forum » Fourth test contest with MONEY prizes » 2015-04-13 23:59:21

Losing is an important part of the game, and I like the way contest coins can be taken away almost as easily as they are earned. Bonus coins are interesting, but probably unnecessary. Sure, you can only gain 99 coins from one game and risk losing 100, but that's how the game treats money. You put up a game for 1.00, the most you can leave with is 1.99.

It is a little troubling that quick decisive games ending with a score of 199-0 against the cabal pay out the maximum 99 coins, whereas longer, more cautious games will pay less. But that seems mitigated by the reckless and (perhaps) unsustainable nature of winning 199-0, along with how winning two games from slow play will beat winning two and losing one from more reckless play. The top two winners here won multiple games against cabal members, so relying on a few lucky breaks likely won't be a winning strategy.

In this contest the cabal was more skilled than the average contest player, as shown by the fact that more coins were won by the cabal than lost. If similarly skilled cabal members are selected for the launch contest, they'll likely shy away from the newbie penny stakes, since they will likely be able to use their skills at the higher tables to try to net some cash for themselves.

One thing we might not have considered is a new form of the dreaded collusion. The test contest wasn't long enough for this to be a problem, but imagine this scenario: I've lost to a cabal member and now have a score of -100. Regarding the contest, I now have a very strong incentive to create a new account than to continue playing. On top of that, if I didn't create a new account I'd have to win against two cabal members to break even. Perhaps allowing for negative scores is a bad idea after all.

#59 Re: Main Forum » I found THE solution to the collusion problem » 2015-04-03 22:25:59

jere wrote:

Honestly, the only problem I saw was that I was F5ing the leaderboard constantly waiting for movement (signaling that Jason was getting out of a game). If I saw movement, I left my current game and tried to join a new one. Perhaps that leaderboard should be cached or delayed.

If it was delayed, it would be even harder to tell if you played against Jason. Right now there's no in-game indication of "Hey, I just played against Jason".

I think a pulse of demonic imagery post-game would be appropriate, maybe a sketch of Minosons or even a nice ring of amulets. Something to indicate "Hey, that game was special", regardless of monetary outcome.

edit: spelling

#60 Re: Main Forum » I found THE solution to the collusion problem » 2015-04-02 19:14:12

jere wrote:

Without a stake cap, there's surely some value that is outside your limit.

jasonrohrer wrote:

As far as a maximum stake.... well, try me.

Careful not to get carried away guys, he is the house after all.

#61 Re: Main Forum » I found THE solution to the collusion problem » 2015-04-02 14:07:12

joshwithguitar wrote:

It's not 100% collusion proof - you can get a slight advantage with colluders by simply exiting any game that you start between another colluder as you know it isn't a game against Jason.

Saturating the game queue with colluding accounts doesn't really give much of an advantage, since you still won't know if you're playing against Jason. I suppose there would be a slight advantage to players who can play simultaneous games on multiple accounts, but each individual game still must be won. I think the mental challenge of having to split focus between opponents during simultaneous play easily balances any advantage gained.

#62 Re: Main Forum » I found THE solution to the collusion problem » 2015-04-01 22:05:32

I'm actually super down with this solution. It solves the problems that arise with multiple accounts, slow play, and even last two hours of the contest game spamming. On a meta-level, it even solves the "No games played for more than $3" effect observed during the trial contests. The only thing left is to flesh out exactly how to score each player. "Chips won at end of game vs Jason" would be a nice metric if we want penny-stakers to stand a chance.

jasonrohrer wrote:

There is some concern about my exhaustion/sanity/health.

It'd be a personal challenge to distribute your play time to make amulets available during all time zones, but I think this is a risk we're willing to take. smile

EDIT:
Jason's account name should probably be kept as secret or anonymous maybe? With Canto Delirium people would probably flock to the game when there's activity on that account, but then it'd just be up to Jason to play as sporadically as he chooses.

#63 Re: Main Forum » Yikes, a month and 10 days gone... » 2015-04-01 15:35:54

joshwithguitar wrote:

I think there is a very simple solution which along with some minor tweaking will make the contest ready to launch. Just write a rule against colluding/using alts to gain easy amulet points or help pick up amulets. Have this rule entirely at the discretion of Jason and have it so that any player deemed to have broken the rule forfeits any prizes.

I think there are laws against contests setup like this, specifically to avoid cases where someone in Jason's position colludes with his friends. At this point the contest might as well have the rules of every other sweepstakes. "Deposit money into CM, one entry per person, randomly chosen winners. Multiple entries are disqualified, no purchase necessary, mail here for alternate entry."

#64 Re: Main Forum » Test Amulet Contest with MONEY Prizes » 2015-03-24 14:49:17

One thing I'd be interested in: For the duration of the contest, were there any games played for stakes above $3? Is this a problem, or is the increased volume of games enough to make up for that?

<Asking both Jason and the folks who usually play $5+ stakes>

Also, JWG, you played a lot of games, what stakes were you typically playing? Since the stakes aren't revealed to the amulet player, I'd imagine $3 games wouldn't be as efficient as penny games.

#65 Re: Main Forum » Feedback on amulet contest » 2015-03-20 15:22:08

Maybe the lesson to learn here is we need a nice balance between # of amulets and # of active players. I'd guess that right now the number of amulets is too high.

#66 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-11 21:41:35

Cobblestone wrote:

I'd also suggest that amulet players leaving the game ~only~ drop the amulet in lieu of the 6 coin penalty.

I really like this idea, an amulet is surely worth more than 6 chips, even at the highest stakes.

Cobblestone wrote:

What if it worked like Josh's suggestion - an amulet game steals another player from their game, either someone waiting in a created game or joining a game. Since the non-amulet holder is aware of and have selected the stakes they're willing to risk, they'll never know they were in an amulet game because if they lose, they still lose their money normally to the amulet holder. However, if the amulet holder loses, the non-amulet holder wins the amulet instead of money.

I can't get on board with this. The amulet player is not playing with value at all, and their individual chips become worthless. 1 chip held by the amulet player has the same value as 199 chips, they don't "risk" anything and can play erratically. I think Jason is right to avoid "funny money."

Edit:
Also, on the "Amulet players play with skill, not money" front, rising stakes also fixes the unable to afford problem since amulet players will only play with winnings.

#67 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-11 21:06:38

jasonrohrer wrote:

Oh, crap, this would make the amulet games slowly rise in stakes, system-wide, over time.  The following numbers ignore the tribute for simplicity.  If you play a 62-cent game (half of your $1.24 max) and lose, then your opponent has now WON 62-cents on that amulet.  Which means their limit will START at 62-cents and go up from there.  Say they win three games, averaging stakes of 31, 46, and 70 (because the stake cap rises after each win).  Their stake cap is now $2.09, and their next game will have average stakes of $1.04.  If their opponent wins, they will START with a stake cap of $1.04.

Three weeks of my life have been sacrificed upon your altar, cruel collusion.

If you reset the counter to .01 per player each time they pick up the amulet, that stops the system wide rising stakes, and should keep players /relatively/ on the same playing field as far as "I won 6 times in a row, and am now playing for similar stakes as another player who won 6 times in a row with this amulet".

Example play:
I win a $.43 game and Amulet 20, the first amulet game I start with amulet 20 means I will risk .01. I win 4 in a row, (.01, .02, .04, .04) then lose when the stakes hit .12.  I earn about 1000 points minus 1 point per minute I held the amulet, 200 points for stealing the amulet, then 800 for winning the for amulet games I created.

The next player who defeated me at .12 can now start to earn points for himself/herself starting at .01.

Later I manage to find Amulet 20 again, and my stakes will start at a max of .12, and I'll have a chance to again boost my points on this amulet.

Collusion should be solved if the Amulet Game button doesn't let the player know if they're creating or joining a game, especially if you add the previously mentioned random time to create/join element combined with random stakes with rising max. Be sure to timeout the game creation/joining to reset the random element after 2 minutes or so. so the player won't be able to use idle time to assume they've created a game.

The stakes will start low initially, but as points rack up max stakes will as well, meaning the high rollers will start to see amulets in their games. There may be a problem with the growth function being essentially ".01*x^n" where 1<x<2, instead of simply .01*2^n. Maybe the latter function would be better for simplicity sake, but the rake starts to hurt that function when you get to the big bucks. Even making amulet games immune to rake doesn't solve anything, because players can still leave with half a stack.

Edit: Points for winning a match

#68 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-10 23:04:01

jasonrohrer wrote:

Yeah, it was out because it would motivate players to alter their balances in order to control their amulet game stakes.  You know, most amulet holders would want to rack wins on penny games (to find easy opponents).  So they'd dump their balance down really low to ensure that 5% of their balance was a penny.  That would also help them collude, perhaps, because the games they were joining would no longer be random.

And dumping your balance is pretty easy.  You don't need to pay a $3 check fee.  Just dump the money by throwing a game to an alt account.

With a fixed range for ALL players, no player has any control over their amulet stakes.

The rising stake thing is a cool idea, but the whole point of this discussion is to let amulets pass around without collusion being used to rack up amulet points.

Good point on the balance dumping. The consequences of that create this rather awkward amulet farming situation for 2 accounts that I hadn't thought of, for someone who didn't want to risk the full $5:

Account 1 has say .10 and searches penny games for an amulet. When they get one, they only risk a max of about .10 for an amulet game, avoiding the $2.50 average risk. If said account loses 5 cents from a run of bad luck, the price for moving .05 from an alt "bank" account is only .0005. You could say "Account minimum balance to play amulet games is $5", but that's a nasty little clause.

If you use rising maximum I proposed, even low stakes players could rack up amulet points, as they would always have enough in their bankroll to play, so the requirement of "You've won $2 with this amulet, therefore you need $2 to play another game with this amulet" makes sense. (At least the first time they get a specific amulet, since you'll presumably have the all the winnings you've earned with the amulet you're currently holding.).

I suppose my proposal is a button that says "Risk up to $X and your amulet to gain points on this amulet" and "Drop Amulet", options for an amulet player only. X is the amount of money they've won with said amulet, rounded up to the nearest penny per game, not counting the game in which they won they first won the amulet from the opponent. When the Risk button is pressed, the game follows one of two paths:

Create game of random stake $X or less after delay of rand(0-60) seconds (Was the time delay thing already debunked? Sorry if it has.)
Join game of random stake $X or less after a delay of rand(0-60) seconds

If you don't have at least $X in your account (Which you should at least the first time you encounter a specific amulet), you won't be able to play with the amulet.

#69 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-10 18:52:28

Wait, JWG brings up a good point, the average skill of players increases as game buy-in increases. We could use this fact in the amulet games.

Why not have a counter, say your first game with an amulet is a penny, second is two pennies, third is four, etc. Maybe that increases too fast, but it's elegant. You could program it so the amount of money you win gets pushed to the next amulet game. (i.e., say you walk away with $3.78 from a $2 game. Next amulet game you'll wager $3.78.) Also, this way you never lose more than the initial penny (you're playing with winnings) I suppose this doesn't solve collusion, but man does it build tension quick.

Another problem is the previously mentioned "No amulet player joins a created game" thing. Hmm, maybe have it use the amount you've won with this amulet as a max value for your possible game?

Edit: This assumes that tracking amount won while holding each specific amulet is an easy thing to implement.

#70 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-05 18:01:30

HappyWulf wrote:

So you will have logs of every match with an Amulet involved, right? I'm sure you can just check which players are gaming the system by seeing if they repeatedly win vs the same opponent in small-stakes matches. I'm sure if you put a disclaimer that you intend to monitor all Amulet matches for collusion, and will pass judgement on disqualification as you see fit, you will see more honest players.

I'd assume Jason's been avoiding executive privilege for multiple reasons, some of which might be legally related in hosting such a contest. I'd also argue any player able to "game the system" deserves an amulet, as long as what they're doing isn't toxic or external to the game itself (i.e., ddos'ing the game server near the contest end or something like that). Hopefully the final rules will be setup in a way to make gaming the system a tactic nearly as difficult as actually playing the game legitimately. I suspect that extending the length of the competition beyond just a weekend would avoid someone attempting to hold on to a specific amulet through timeout abuse a lot harder, since we all have to sleep sometime.

#71 Re: Main Forum » Working Rules for Launch Contest » 2015-03-04 21:07:04

jasonrohrer wrote:

The other 50% of the time, we create a new game for them with a random stake no greater than 5% of their bankroll.

I think it would be important to weight the randomly generated stake with popular game stakes (.01, .25, 1.00, etc. I'm sure you have data on popular game stakes.). If you use an even distribution between $0.01-$5.00, it'd be pretty easy for non-amulet holders to peg the game that's $3.11 as a likely amulet game.

Also, don't forget to account for the case in which a player may have only $0.18 in their bankroll and managed to pick up an amulet.

Edit:
Interesting Anagrams for Golden Amulet:
Moulted Angel
Mounted Legal
Gunmetal Lode
Elegant Mould
Daemon Gullet

#72 Re: Main Forum » Thoughts on a Launch Contest » 2015-03-03 22:47:11

I think it might help to look at this a bit backwards, because we keep running into a situation where a strategy that goes against the spirit of the game ends up being best for getting the amulets. If we instead determine what kind of behavior we want to reward with amulets, then it would be easier to root out bots or abuse.

From what I've gathered so far, it seems like the objective is to reward players who play often (more chances to be paired against an amulet), win often (actually win when playing for an amulet), and, seemingly most importantly, win consecutive games.

Right now I think the "Winning consecutively" category is a tall order for casual players, but still manageable. It is a bit troubling that the winning consecutively condition has a "Get an amulet" prerequisite, even with the amulets being passed around.

Edit:

I think it may be best if you were immune to losing an amulet immediately. Say, for an hour (half hour?) after you pick up an amulet you try to win as much as possible (be it dollar amount, chip count, win/loss ratio, or overall games), then after that hour your next loss or sufficient idle time gives up the amulet. That way if you have a legitimate slow strategy, you don't suffer, but at the same time it encourages playing & winning as many games as you can during the immunity period. It also makes it more exciting for new players, giving them a chance to actually hold on to the amulet for longer than a game or two.

#73 Re: Main Forum » Strategy analysis » 2015-02-18 19:59:55

jasonrohrer wrote:

No, I'm counting draws as losses.  Win rate of 65% means win rate.

I'm actually playing my "bot" against a random bot, turn by turn.  My bot is looking at the available information each turn (what we know about what the opponent picked so far) and picking the move that leads to the highest expected win percentage.  That's giving me a 65% win rate against the random opponent.

Also, different boards have slightly different win rates for this method, but the average across a bunch of boards is 65%.

Ahh, so you're re-optimizing picks every round, while I'm just picking all columns simultaneously. I haven't taken the rounds into account yet, still working on it, but now the discrepancy makes sense.

#74 Re: Main Forum » Strategy analysis » 2015-02-18 04:44:43

jasonrohrer wrote:

Whoops... Monte Carlo isn't needed.  There are only 720 possible ways your random opponent can play.  So, just need to simulate each of your 720 non-reactive strategies against each of those opponent strategies and see which one wins the most.

There's always an edge when you do this.  Rarely it's as high as 3%, rarely as low as 0.5%, and usually between 1 and 2%.

Using the board presented, simply picking the three columns with 34, 35, and 36 for yourself and the remaining three for the opponent skewed in your favor by about 5%. And yeah, since I was assuming perfectly random I avoided Monty Hall situations (I picked random cuz it's an easy start). I just had to find all possible plays for the opponent and then add up how many times I won, how many draws, and how many times random won.

I'm currently only working with one board, so if/when I find Nash equilibrium for this board I can see if I can expand it to another board. My current guess is Nash equilibrium for this game is similar to the one in the prisoner's dilemma, in which the "best" play is actually just a "lose the least", but I could be wrong.

Edit: Missed Jason's most recent post. I'm assuming we're getting different numbers (65% vs 55%) because I'm counting draws as losses.

#75 Re: Main Forum » Strategy analysis » 2015-02-16 22:16:59

jere wrote:

I'd figure a random strategy is a lot more exploitable than a 5% advantage. Assuming you had a column that looked like that first row give them that: 83% chance they have no more than 26. 33% chance they have no more than 6.

Give yourself that first column and you have 50% chance of a 30+. At least when the ante is low, you just fold half the time you get a raise.

Am I way off?

I'm starting the analysis by assuming every game is played to fruition, no folding, just to get a baseline. That 50% chance of 30+ is pretty much exactly that, a 50/50 shot at winning.

When I have the time I'll break it down further, but the more math I do on static boards the more handicapped I feel playing the game in real time.

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