CORDIAL MINUET ENSEMBLE

Dan_Dan84

Member

Registered: 2015-02-14

Posts: 106

Bullies!

Yes, you know who you are. Making crazy bets on the first pick. Picking up those antes. Hoping your opponent will call your bet so you can demonstrate your superior picking strategy. I salute your "take-no-prisoners" strategy.

But, this gets me wondering. How does one actually play to beat a bully? Of course, you could always choose not to play, surrendering your six-coin leaving penalty in addition to the 3-10 coins in antes your opponent has already bullied out of you. While that works at lower stakes, when you're playing for higher, losing 16 coins to your opponent could be a sizable chunk of change-- especially when you're doing it just to get away from a bad opponent.

In his "secret incantations revealed!" post, Jere suggests that "Sometimes you'll get bullied by someone who bets 20 coins on every opening pick. No worries. You only need to win 5% of rounds to beat them." How does that work exactly?

A bullying strategy can be even more frustrating when your opponent has adopted a "minimax" strategy, making sure you can't get more than 27 on your opening pick. So you can't even call his bets when you finally get that 36, putting you in a stronger position.

Because yeah, I'm still playing for low stakes, but I'm sure that once I decide to go up to, say, $1 (hey big spender!), I'm going to encounter people who will simply try to bully me out. On a small stakes game, I'm more likely to stand up to the bully. If I win, I take his coins and feel proud of myself. If I lose, I shrug and hope I don't get matched with that player again.

Has anyone come across any strategies for these sorts of situations? I respect all strategies that are played within the rules of the game, but this seems to be a tough strategy to counter...

storeroom leaflet

Member

Registered: 2015-02-19

Posts: 45

Re: Bullies!

If they're betting 10x the ante every time simply calling when you get an average or better number folding if you have a worse number (though really it's about how likely they are to beat you at the end than what your number actually is [e.g. there may only be one number they could have higher than yours at this point, or maybe you can predict their future choices, then it doesn't really matter what you're initial number is]). If they're minimaxing you as well, this will be calling every time because you'll always start with a better than average pick. You might win or lose everything very quickly this way, but if the bully isn't out-picking you then you'll win more than you lose.

context fabric

Member

Registered: 2015-02-21

Posts: 23

Re: Bullies!

Sorry, that was me, I was curious to see how people would react to a player who consistently over-bets. I wasn't trying to bully you into folding I was going all in even when I got low numbers ( I remember one turn I got a 1 and still bet the full amount ). I also would only do this on low stakes games (games .10cents or less).

I wont actually use this play style anymore since I dont want to ruin the fun of the game for anyone else.

I would like to discuss the strategies and counter strategies for players who will adopt this play style. Im sure were going to see a lot of this after the release.

Last edited by context fabric (2015-03-03 07:15:43)

storeroom leaflet

Member

Registered: 2015-02-19

Posts: 45

Re: Bullies!

In his "secret incantations revealed!" post, Jere suggests that "Sometimes you'll get bullied by someone who bets 20 coins on every opening pick. No worries. You only need to win 5% of rounds to beat them." How does that work exactly?

It's not quite accurate but if you imagine that there is ante of one each round, they bet 20 every round, and 5% of the time you know for sure you are going to win. Then you could fold the other 95% giving up 1*0.95=.95 chips a round and call when you know you're winning winning gaining 21*0.05=1.05, so that you lose 19/20 boards, but the other 1/20 you win more than enough to make up for your loss. Since you won't know for sure whether you will win on your first pick of course you'll have to call more often to make up for the fact that sometimes you will call and lose. But if they're not outpicking you and they're always betting, just calling will break even and if you fold your really bad first picks you'll be doing even better. If you want to do better and beat them as much as possible then it gets more tricky deciding exactly what you should call and what you should fold, but intuitively, calling average or better folding worse, should do pretty well depending how well you each play on later picks (you have to keep in mind they'll know much more about what you than you will about what they have when they're employing this strategy).

Apreche

Member

Registered: 2014-12-08

Posts: 23

Re: Bullies!

Just win baby.

jere

Member

Registered: 2014-11-23

Posts: 298

Re: Bullies!

In his "secret incantations revealed!" post, Jere suggests that "Sometimes you'll get bullied by someone who bets 20 coins on every opening pick. No worries. You only need to win 5% of rounds to beat them." How does that work exactly?

This is outdated unfortunately. I wrote this when the ante was 1 coin every time. Storeroom basically summed it up, but to give you some context:

Betting 10-20 coins on every round was Judge Doorman's original strategy. Now imagine you're playing a $100 game and your opponent bets 20 coins. You match it and you're on the line for $20! Probably more than that because if they bullied on the first turn, they'll probably do so later on too. But it's not that hard to counter and that's what I was referencing. I just folded every time I had a bad opening pick. Sometimes, it was clear that not only did I have a high number, but I clearly had a huge advantage. At that point, I would match. I could fold 9/10 hands and still win the entire thing consistently. That's how Nate and I won a good bit of our money. Anyway, Doorman got much better, he stopped betting like that, and the ante was changed.

Fighting bullies is tougher these days, but the basic idea is that a bully betting huge amounts every round indicates they're probably bluffing often. You have to be willing to take some calculated risk and jump in when you have even a slight advantage.

You should conduct a thought experiment: would I ever be willing to match an all-in on the opening bet? If the answer is no, an opponent can bully you with impunity and maybe you should think about lower stakes. In other words, if you're not comfortable risking a $1 on one hand, go down to $.10 stake and an all-in there is roughly equivalent to risking a few coins at the higher level.

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AnoHito

Member

Registered: 2014-11-24

Posts: 116

Re: Bullies!

When gambling, good betting is all about maintaining the correct balance. Any player that bets large amounts every round is using an unbalanced strategy, and to balance them out you must play more conservatively. Just be patient, wait for an opportunity, and then call them when the moment is right. Sometimes it is necessary to be willing to take risks, even when you don't know for sure you will win. But as long as you read the situation correctly and wait for the times when you have an advantage, you will usually come out ahead. Remember that ultimately the thing that makes it the hardest to win, is trying too hard not to lose.

jasonrohrer

Administrator

Registered: 2014-11-20

Posts: 802

Re: Bullies!

This issue crops up in poker too.  These players are playing poorly and can be beaten.  In fact, beating this kind of player is one of the best feelings.

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/playi … e-players/

Dan_Dan84

Member

Registered: 2015-02-14

Posts: 106

Re: Bullies!

Sorry, that was me, I was curious to see how people would react to a player who consistently over-bets. I wasn't trying to bully you into folding I was going all in even when I got low numbers ( I remember one turn I got a 1 and still bet the full amount ). I also would only do this on low stakes games (games .10cents or less).

haha, yeah, I didn't want to name names, but... No need to apologize at all. It led me to do some thinking: how does one counter such a strategy? And how would I deal with this at a higher stakes level? At less than 5c, I'd think, "What the hell" and just call, even with only a 17. But at higher stakes, would I take the risk...?

I probably reacted the way you expected: folding every hand and waiting to see what would happen. With the rising ante, I would probably wait until I got, say, a 29 (if you were minimaxing me) on a 6+ coin ante, and then I would call.

Of course, if it was higher stakes and you quit, say, before the 6-coin ante, that would net you 9 coins after the leaving penalty: pennies (or less) at most stakes, but $9 at a $100 stake.

I wont actually use this play style anymore since I dont want to ruin the fun of the game for anyone else.

That's up to you. It could work-- especially against new players going in for too-high stakes. However, sooner or later you might end up playing against a more experienced player who'll call you-- even on round 2! That could lead to significant losses for you, if you've only been picking up antes against weaker players and then one loss wipes out both your gains and a significant part of your bankroll!

re: ruining the fun of the game... Hmm, that's very considerate of you, but it is a legitimate play strategy. Some players might even think it's more fun that way: no pesky betting in the way. The victor will be determined by who has the best picking strategy (though during the first few rounds, it'll probably be more based on luck, since you don't know your opponent that well...).

I would like to discuss the strategies and counter strategies for players who will adopt this play style. Im sure were going to see a lot of this after the release.

Indeed. That's why I was hoping to start a discussion on this now, both for our benefit and as a resource for future players. So let's see what else has come up so far in this discussion...

Thanks for the analysis, Storeroom. I think the most salient part is "you have to keep in mind they'll know much more about what you than you will about what they have when they're employing this strategy." Of course, you can assume that they're likely getting below 15 on many opening picks, especially if you haven't adopted a minimax strategy. Of course, if you choose to call them the time they get the 36...

You should conduct a thought experiment: would I ever be willing to match an all-in on the opening bet? If the answer is no, an opponent can bully you with impunity and maybe you should think about lower stakes. In other words, if you're not comfortable risking a $1 on one hand, go down to $.10 stake and an all-in there is roughly equivalent to risking a few coins at the higher level.

That's really good advice. Perhaps this is something you can add to your "Secret incantations" post...

Just win baby.

Easier said than done.

When gambling, good betting is all about maintaining the correct balance. Any player that bets large amounts every round is using an unbalanced strategy, and to balance them out you must play more conservatively. Just be patient, wait for an opportunity, and then call them when the moment is right. Sometimes it is necessary to be willing to take risks, even when you don't know for sure you will win. But as long as you read the situation correctly and wait for the times when you have an advantage, you will usually come out ahead. Remember that ultimately the thing that makes it the hardest to win, is trying too hard not to lose.

More good advice. I think that when confronted with a bully, it just makes it harder to win with strategy. Basically, you get a 25, and you feel the time is right to call. But the time you call could be the time your opponent got a 3, or the time he got a 34! You could minimax your opponent to ensure he doesn't get that edge, but then your edge is dulled: you get the 29, and maybe your opponent got the 28. Not much of an edge (unless the row with your 29 has your opponents' column's high number). It seems to become more about luck at that point.

This issue crops up in poker too.  These players are playing poorly and can be beaten.  In fact, beating this kind of player is one of the best feelings.
http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/playi … e-players/

Thanks for the link. And yes, it is a good feeling. Late into a game, an opponent went all-in on the first pick. Based on his past betting patterns, I assumed he had the 2. I was right, and I gave him the 3 on the second pick. That felt good. But, I only felt confident matching his all-in (he could have had the 36!) because I compared this behaviour with his past betting patterns. That doesn't work with bullies going all-in (or betting heavily) on first picks in early rounds...

Currently, the 6-coin leaving ante only discourages "bully and run" during the first three rounds (up to the third round, the antes only add up to six). Leaving after the fourth round will net him 4 coins, 9 coins after the fifth round, and 15 after the sixth round. The leaving penalty, as I understand it, was instituted to prevent people at high stakes from bullying a coin or three out of somebody on the first two rounds and leaving. Is the 6-coin leaving penalty still high enough?