CORDIAL MINUET ENSEMBLE

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#251 Re: Main Forum » [UPDATED] Boxing Day TOURNAMENT » 2014-12-26 18:36:48

I did get in btw. Took a few minutes. There is a parity issue where if an odd number of people are there, you're not getting a game until someone leaves or joins even if that number of people is huge.

#252 Re: Main Forum » [UPDATED] Boxing Day TOURNAMENT » 2014-12-26 18:24:06

Hmm.... waiting longer than I thought for another game. sad

#253 Re: Main Forum » Leaderboards » 2014-12-24 16:14:28

Oh dear. The number is everywhere. 3 6 6 6 4 0

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#254 Re: Main Forum » Cordial Minuet GOTY 2015 » 2014-12-23 12:46:18

Congrats on your very quick climb! I'll probably never see the top slot again on profit ratio since I started with $10. smile I played against you several times yesterday and in fact, against my better judgment, decided to play a $4.20 game while showing the game to a friend and lost. I'm pretty emotional with this stuff honestly, so that was kind of upsetting. However, I did win it back by the end of the night with a series of $1 games and a $3.33 game.

So you have an interesting strategy obviously and parts of it are similar to that of another poster, AnoHito. I was absolutely sure that it was Ano. Since you don't want your strategy spoiled, I will just say that to me it resembles "gambling" a lot more than my normal play style. Like literally betting a bunch of money on coin flips. Skill certainly plays a huge part in this game, but I don't buy the argument that there is no luck. At least not among mere mortals. Anyway, between the perception of coin flipping and the runaway stakes ($4.20,$6.66), I made a comparison to Martingale.

Which leads me to my final point. The best piece of advice I've received is Asminthe's Bankroll Management. Since then, I've tried to stick to ~$1 stakes and, while slow, it has produced consistent results. Don't get me wrong. $6.66 stakes are the most AWESOME stakes for this game, both thematically and because it would be the largest stakes to date (beating out $5 games IIRC). But it's also 1/3 of your current bankroll, which can be dangerous. Something to think about.

I decided to start a company (alone) making games full time. If it wasn't for developers like Jason, I would never have had the courage to start a one-man game studio... So most of all, a big thank you and good luck goes out to Jason for leading the indie community by example for nearly 10 years now.

Oh interesting. This is sort of a pipe dream for me. Do elaborate!

#255 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-23 12:26:44

Ah. I take all that back! It was a case of mistaken identity.

#256 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-23 00:31:53

And congrats by the way. I'm awful at coin flips.

Wait. Scratch that.

#257 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-23 00:04:25

Relevant to this thread, since this appears to be what Ano is currently doing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale … _system%29

And it's a miraculous way to play if you have infinite moneys.

#258 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-20 01:32:02

I think you've got things backwards. Betting a fixed percentage of your bankroll guarantees you won't go bust (though you could approach 0). It's Asminthe's bankrollment managment stuff: always do 5% of your bankroll as stakes.

Betting a fixed amount is likely to bankrupt you. This is very clearly demonstrated by the modified script I posted earlier.

The whole "you can always buy in again" thing is silly. Sure, if you have infinite money, gambling is no problem. But nobody does. And if your bankroll is a lot smaller than what you can comfortably afford, you're throwing away money.

#260 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-19 13:58:49

Don't believe me?

We believe you. A weighted coin wins on average. Of course.

Here's the part you're missing:

stake = 10.00
edge = 0.01
1000000.times do
  if rand > 0.50 - edge #rand returns a random number between 0.0 and 1.0
    stake += 1.00
  else
    stake -= 1.00
  end

  if stake <= 0
      puts "BUSTED"
      break
  end
end
puts stake

If you exhaust your bankroll, you don't get to keep playing.

The above program, in fact, fails most of the time. Even if you lower the number of bets to ~1000.

#261 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-18 21:35:53

I've thought about exactly what you're saying. If I get the 36, why not all in because I've definitely got a better first round pick than my opponent.

It's an interesting thought, but there's one issue to consider: if you bet high (especially all in) when you get get that high number, you're telegraphing information to your opponent and their later picks could be much more informed than yours. The ~6 point advantage you have in the first round can be squandered easily in the rounds that follow.

#262 Re: Main Forum » To the person I've been playing today/yesterday... » 2014-12-18 20:26:10

In general you need to play Cordial Minuet conservatively or you can easily find yourself committed to a match where the odds are against you.

In the same paragraph as talking about you all-inning on the first turn. smile

I agree with the sentiment though. I used to get really annoyed by people that would bet 5 on every round or all-in more often than not. I've learned that it's exploitable behavior.

#263 Re: Main Forum » Non-exploitable tournament structure » 2014-12-17 02:49:52

Anything without a fixed buy in seems easily exploitable.

Sounds like separate servers is ideal, but I would hope for some nice way to change servers through the UI. Something like a list of named, trusted servers that come bundled with the game and still have it so the tournament server is only available when activated. I don't know if any of this is feasible through the current framework, but it'd be a lot better than editing text files.

#264 Re: Main Forum » Table pot idea » 2014-12-17 02:39:47

Well, what I'm saying is that the reward would dwindle every turn because it's going to the house one coin at a time. And if the game goes on for a reasonable length of time, this side pot thing is completely irrelevant. It's only abnormally short games that need fixing.

I suppose someone trying that "boring contest" strategy could make every round last, what, 8 minutes? Ouch! Then again, someone who is trying not to bet anything is going to lose out to someone who is willing to bet on the first betting round (so only 2 minutes per round) and that should quickly offset any expected gains from the side pot. Who knows what people will do though!

I actually think 3 coins would be a reasonable number (if a 3% of the whole buy-in rake is acceptable). So what if you have to quit on the first round because someone is at the door? You lose 4 coins instead of 1 (you always lose 1). Doesn't seem that bad for the annoyance you are causing the other player.

I don't know about co-mingling the side pot and the up-front rake.  I want to make it easy to understand.

I can see that, but is it any worse than the current situation in which your winnings and rake are sometimes but not always connected?

Even easier than the current rake (coins flying at random, from the player's perspective) is just:  1 coin per round, every round.  So you'd still see them fly away, but they would ALWAYS fly away, instead of at random.

1 coin per round rake? That would drastically influence the way you bet. If no one raised, the winner wouldn't even win anything? Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

#265 Re: Main Forum » Non-exploitable tournament structure » 2014-12-16 20:38:07

Server setting for controlling max/min game stakes...

Wait, are you going to implement tournaments using separate servers? I remember there was briefly a permadeath server in TCD, but IIRC the real money contest ran on the regular server in parallel with the normal game. The latter seems more palatable to your average player.

#266 Re: Main Forum » Table pot idea » 2014-12-16 20:31:38

I had a similar idea. What about using this side pot for the house profit instead of a rake?

You go in contributing let's say 5 coins each and that goes into the side pot. For every round, a number of coins proportional to the round winnings (with a minimum of 1 coin) moves from the side pot to the house. The proportion is set up so that if one player is wiped out, the rest of the pot will be released to the house. In the event that a player leaves before the side pot is exhausted, the player who stayed gets the remaining amount as a reward. The side pot becomes a non-issue after 10 rounds and neither drag-out play nor the incentive to "win back" the side pot are problems.

It would thwart the leavers and the exploiters as well as making the tribute clearer. You go in knowing what you'll pay to the house instead of seeing coins fly out of your winnings seemingly at random. Even after reading the tribute thread again, it's still a bit confusing how it works.

My concern with having this side pot entirely as reward is that it will incentive all-ins too much (e.g. if I wager 90 coins, I have the potential to win 120% of that instead of 100% on any other bet).

And it obviously unfairly punishes dropped connections---or legitimate "I've got to run, the stove's on fire" moments.

Yea. Not only emergencies, but also having a limited block of time to play. Let's say I have 30 minutes. I can wait on a game, but what happens when the first person shows up after 25 minutes of waiting? And now I'm scrambling to win back the side pot?

#267 Re: Main Forum » Leaderboards » 2014-12-15 18:06:43

The concern at that point is not one person with multiple accounts but multiple people willing to collude and split the winnings. It reminds me very much of this incident during an iterated prisoner's dilemma contest:

Although tit for tat is considered to be the most robust basic strategy, a team from Southampton University in England (led by Professor Nicholas Jennings and consisting of Rajdeep Dash, Sarvapali Ramchurn, Alex Rogers, Perukrishnen Vytelingum) introduced a new strategy at the 20th-anniversary iterated prisoners' dilemma competition, which proved to be more successful than tit for tat. This strategy relied on cooperation between programs to achieve the highest number of points for a single program. The university submitted 60 programs to the competition, which were designed to recognize each other through a series of five to ten moves at the start.[10] Once this recognition was made, one program would always cooperate and the other would always defect, assuring the maximum number of points for the defector. If the program realized that it was playing a non-Southampton player, it would continuously defect in an attempt to minimize the score of the competing program. As a result,[11] this strategy ended up taking the top three positions in the competition, as well as a number of positions towards the bottom.

In the month or so that the leaderboards have been up, nobody has surpassed a 3x profit ratio. If a tournament was some sort of time limited free-for-all, 4 friends could easily beat this by identifying each other (through boards and moves) and then having everyone lose everything to a particular player. On the other hand, I could see the honest players playing more aggressively (doing stakes equal to their entire buy in) and potentially getting higher profits, but either way they'd still have to compete with the dishonest players.

If there was some sort of bracket and you were forced to play people (for a minimum number of rounds or until one player had 0 coins), it would largely mitigate that strategy above. The dishonest players still might encounter each other, but they wouldn't be able to avoid real opponents.

#268 Re: Main Forum » Leaderboards » 2014-12-14 22:46:42

Ok, I promise I'll stop after this but I hit #1 on all three. smile Even though the dollar balance one is probably the most meaningless leaderboard (because a wealthy player can immediately get to the top), it still trips something in my brain that says: must climb this. I think this kind of mindset actually drives a lot of success of games like LoL because you're always trying to get to a higher level, then to a higher division, etc.

I was wondering about how easily the leaderboards could be exploited and it goes back to the wire transfer concept. Want to be #1 on profit ratio? Set up two accounts. One with $20 and the other with $1. Funnel all the money from the $20 account to the $1 account and, voila, 20 X profit ratio. If you withdraw all your money, does that remove you from the boards?

It's not too important I suppose. If and when tournaments happen, I imagine those will be the most reliable way to highlight the most skilled players.

#269 Re: Main Forum » Leaderboards » 2014-12-12 13:09:29

cool

Creature Expression has finally made it to the top of profit/ratio leader boards. I'm sure I will be knocked down soon, so I have to gloat a little.

#270 Re: Main Forum » Leaderboards » 2014-12-12 01:51:56

Nice! You've knocked down INSTITUTE DEED who was #1 on both the ratio and profit boards for quite a while now...

#271 Re: Main Forum » New player here and some thoughts » 2014-12-12 01:49:35

There are a few tricks to it, but generally the name of the game is reading your opponent's mind. If you can predict with any likelihood what they will pick, you can easily get a high score and give them a low one. And even if you don't get a high score, there's the betting game. Do not underestimate the betting game. It's huge. You can bluff yourself out of a bad situation, use cognitive biases to get your opponent to sink in more money than they should, and avoid losing money in most cases.

It's actually very similar to The Castle Doctrine. And you may remember certain bewildered players on the TCD forums asking how can I hide my safe if there has to be a route to it? There was a common trap variant in TCD that went like this: create several hallways and put the safe (or another hallway leading to it) down one of them. This might seems like a random choice, but alas... we're all human. There are "logical" reasons not to put the safe down the first hallway or the second or the last, right? But if you know that, there's the second order reasoning that maybe it's more likely to be in one of those places. And so on and so on. Even if people were picking randomly, there are ways to exploit that behavior.

Some people pick numbers rather predictably. They will give you the row with the lowest high number or they will give you the a row with a lot of low numbers.

Then like I said, there a few advanced things that you can try. If they bet very high, you might want to assume they have the row with the highest number possible and you can pretend that this row is no longer an option. Which lets you pick much better in later rounds. Similarly if the opponent normally bets and one time they abstain, they might have a low number.

During the second and third rounds, you will want to remember that your opponent doesn't know that your columns aren't available for them. These are not something you think of as a beginner, but it helps a lot.

Don't worry about being negative, but realize that there are indeed a big skill gap between the least and most experienced players.

#272 Re: Main Forum » This is an excellent "second monitor" game » 2014-12-12 00:16:45

To each his own I guess! smile

I in fact often find the game very stressful, but obviously that's because the real money aspect makes it intense.

#273 Re: Main Forum » Denied by server? » 2014-12-11 01:43:50

Just got a denied by server while waiting for a game. I was browsing the internet while waiting, so I don't think it was a connection problem on my side.

#274 Re: Main Forum » Denied by server? » 2014-12-10 19:23:45

I've gotten the Denied error 2-3 times (emailed you once) and I'm fairly certain I've seen the [!] several times too. At least once, I tried checking the forums while this was happening and wasn't receiving a response there. I'll try to keep a closer eye on it.

#275 Re: Main Forum » Anticlimax » 2014-12-10 19:12:25

- The 3rd and final choice of columns (feels either too 50/50 or too obvious)
- The last reveal, when it shows you have a 50/50 shot of winning based
- The last reveal, when you definitely can't win and begrudgingly have to hit Fold

Unless both of your numbers are below both of your their numbers, you can always attempt to bluff.

I've discussed the last round before and whether or not it is a 50/50. The conclusion seems to be that it would only be a 50/50 if you knew your opponent picked the reveal randomly, but for strategic reasons they will be heavily biased towards picking the highest number possible in most cases.


I think the idea of more reveals is interesting. However, the topic of bots has come up a lot and I feel that any mechanic that gave such a clear advantage to a computer would be viewed very negatively. I would guess that if features are added they would have to, at a minimum, avoid contradicting the information you already have on the board.

Here's an example: on the first turn you could optionally select a "grey" column in addition to red and green columns. Doing so would reveal to your opponent that you did not select that column, which gives the opponent a good amount of information for the rest of the game, but allows you to skew your first round numbers high or low. Not sure this is actually an interesting feature, but you can see how it offer more options without giving the opponent any false information.

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