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Caring about winning certainly makes a larger difference in your behaviour in games like poker and CM than others (because you won't throw away money to test every bluff). But first gaining some experience with the game is even more important. I can't really say anything about it yet.
With the score graph you would be able to reason about any number of possible hands by reducing it to probability of winning (assuming some way to show counts per bucket). But if you're playing based solely on probabilities then the actual rules of the game wouldn't be very relevant. Also, realise that the score graph doesn't actually show you what score graph the opponent sees, which means the score graph is not an ideal "medium" for double guessing games.
Would it be such a bad thing to take out the reveal step? If you want a certain number of betting rounds (do poker variants vary in number of rounds?) then you can hit it by adjusting whether the the community card selection is simultaneous or not.
It would be nice if the tournament pages listed profit in coin instead of/in addition to dollars. Especially since the pages don't list any information like buy-in or per-game stakes.
Is it time to ask yet whether these regular tournaments are working? Perhaps they're too frequent to attract people. Also I've heard several people say they preferred longer ones, myself too.
I'm sure it's an attraction (Steal Real Money was to me, even though it was long over before I heard of it), although it's confusing that it's not clearly marked.
Wow, it's a happy coincidence that 52 = 6*6 + 4*4. I'm impressed at this squeezing of poker into CM, awesome prototype!
I haven't managed to get into a game with anyone, but I did play a couple rounds against myself.
I'm surprised at the way that community cards work. So you've replaced CM's reveal-a-column step with revealing the full set of 4 community cards. Before and after the reveal there are respectively 24 and 6 possible hands for each player, compared to CM's 6 and 2. That's quite innovative, but I 'm not sure I agree with hiding two of the community cards. Yes, I think having more than 2 possible hands on the final betting round is an improvement. But I think this worsens things in earlier rounds. It adds so much uncertainty because there are so many possible hands to consider, in addition to more choices at each move. I feel like I won't manage to do that in my head, which is going to make it hard to figure out what hands the opponent is comparing and hence what they will do. Looks like this is a game about working out hand odds and betting instead of reading minds.
Also, there's a second potential problem, which is that if you want to pick two shared cards with no preference to their order, then having each player pick two rows/columns would be bad, because each player has no preference to the ordering of their row/column, resulting in 50/50 chances of each two different pairs getting picked even after both players pick their columns.
Now, that's not the situation here because there is a preference: you get to see one card and not the other, so you would ideally order columns so that that result of one column is important to you or both players and the other one isn't, so that there's information asymmetry. Still, that seems difficult to consider. A lot of players thought CM's experimental mode was too difficult to reason about, and that's miles simpler than this.
Of course, if you only picked one community cards column per move then there would be nothing to reveal in the reveal step, it would be a big change.
When you finish the round it breaks. Firstly, the community cards grid doesn't update to show the two cards the other person picked after they are revealed (in the Community Cards: line). Secondly, I see this, after going all-in on the second last betting round, with 10 coins initially in the pot and each player having 90 coins. (It doesn't seem to screw up without an all-in).
You won
Your stack: 0
Their stack: 95
Pot: 10Which doesn't really make any sense. After going to the next board, I get
Your stack: 8
Their stack: 93
Pot: 4Oh, I didn't consider first-come first-served. Certainly lessens the problem, though it still means it's a bad idea to join a contest towards the end of the time slot. The other players may not stick around until the end. But since the tournaments are only 2 hours it won't happen as often as if they were longer.
I notice that if there's a tournament buy-in which you can't afford, then it's not marked as a tournament. It looks like a game.
Cool! So each tournament occurs every 14 hours, so there would be around one per day per stakes during busy hours.
Yeah, yikes, I see that the server is only refunding in the case where 1 person entered.
Even refunding when no games are played in the tournament isn't ideal either. What if I enter and sit around for the whole contest with no one to play with, meanwhile 2 (or 4 or 6 or 8...) other players join and play games against each other. Seems like entering a tournament in off peak hours is actually very risky with the current rules, it certainly puts me off entering them. The obvious solution is to refund your buyin if you don't get to play any games. Sure, for a "serious" tournament it would be your own fault if you buyin and then don't play any games, but if it's out of your control then it's not fair and a big deterrent.
Also, consider the case where 2 people enter the tournament and they play games back and forth for hours, and end up nearly even, but both with negative profit. No one wins a prize either.
I think these cases are quite likely to happen all the time since there are tournaments all day and most of them will have very few contestants.
Is it possible to run two tournaments at once? Of course only makes sense if the stakes are vastly different.
Is the time listed on the past tournaments list the start or the end time? (Column header maybe?) Would be nice if it gave the duration too.
It would be nice if the li
As much as it pains me to help track him down, thief saloon is madcatz1999 on this forum. He seems to use that alias on many other site online. He did say he was "looking forward" to the amulet.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/188688/
We're just trying to explore the space of possibilities a bit. Certainly none of these ideas are quite as simple as CM.
Yeah. It would be possible for both players to give themselves the same column and give each other the same row. So they'd gain the same space on that turn. That's pretty unsatisfying.
Since that's the case anyway, I don't see the use of the "restriction that the index of a chosen row can't match the index of a chosen column".
(EDIT: OK, I worked out the reason: it's so that you learn something about the column the opponent picked for themselves, in the same way as CM. That makes this variant is very similar to CM.)
I don't think the possibility for such a tie is a problem. CM has ties anyway. We can fairly confidently assume there is no pure strategy which is optimal in any of these variants (which I think Jason or Josh showed for CM?), which makes the possibility of the players making identical moves unimportant.
But those sorts of ties aren't unavoidable in a perfectly symmetric game. Consider rock-paper-scissors. For example if CM was played on a Latin square instead of a magic square then it would be unbiased to either player. But it would also be much more boring.
Magic squares don't always use the numbers 1 ... n*n. I suspect that if every number appeared twice (1,1,3,3,...35,35) then it would be possible for the transpose of the square to be a permutation of the rows and columns of the original. This would require that every four cells forming a square contain both duplicates of two numbers, like:
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. 9 . . 3 .
. . . . . .
. 3 . . 9 .And maybe it would then be possible to deduplicate the numbers (change one 1 into a 2, etc) and get a magic square with zero or very low bias?
Yes, that sounds like a good solution.
Regarding the prize ratio. Goals seem to include a large prize for 1st place but also a lot of people who receive prizes. With just those constraints the solution is to make the prize ratio large, and also have a low minimum prize (less than the buy-in). (I won less than 40% of the buy-in for the test tournament as a prize, but I was still happy to receive it -- it felt like a small win.) But that's not ideal, as then the 2nd and 3rd place prizes are low, which puts off the bulk of contestants who realistically have to aim for 3rd place rather than 1st place. I feel that 1.25 was too low and 2 is too high.
Also, automatic daily contests? Cool!
This is really mind-bending, so I'm not sure I'm getting this right...
Firstly, there are different ways of comparing the player's hands. There seem to be two obvious ways of doing it.
1. If one player has a pair (of the same rank), the other sees them having a pair of the same suit, which is normally worth nothing. So one solution is to make the rank-suit swap of a hand equal in value to the original (e.g. a flush would rank equal to a triple). However then there's no point doing the rank-suit swap at all, as it would be merely cosmetic.
2. What I am pretty sure you actually meant: each player gets the hand THEY see, so you can give the other player what looks like a pair, knowing it's actually worthless to them. (Assuming hand ranking is done in an asymmetrical way similar to Poker). This seems like it could add a bit more depth to the game.
Such a mirroring of rank and suits isn't a trick specific to the suited game. In general for any game variant defined by a "hand" ordering rule (e.g. sum of values in CM) you could label each square with two "values": what player 1 receives on getting the square, and what player 2 receives on getting it. In your rank-suit swap there is a simple mapping between the two values which makes it easy to represent both of them at once. But I could just as easily combine a normal 6x6 magic square and its transpose into a single, so there is no relation between the two numbers ("us" and "them") in a cell. As long as your transpose-mirror condition holds, this game is completely fair with no bias to either player, unlike CM.
On the other hand, that would have no effect on the win_loss_ratio board.
http://cordialminuet.com/gameServer/ser … loss_ratio
There are no daily, weekly, etc, win_loss_ratio board however. Also, it uses exactly the same Q smoothing scheme as profit_ratio (despite which university scorpion remarkably has a ratio of 7.45)
If the intent of the profit_ratio board is, well, to show profit ratio, rather than to purposefully skew towards the high stakes players and very heavily penalise low stakes players, then the current Q factor doesn't seem too good, specially for the daily board.
Why not use Q = C * total_buy_in / games_started. Suppose you win 99 coins in every game, all at the same stakes. Here's your ratio by number of games for different values of C:
games C=0.25 C=0.5 C=1 C=2 C=4
1 1.792 1.660 1.495 1.330 1.198
2 1.880 1.792 1.660 1.495 1.330
3 1.914 1.849 1.743 1.594 1.424
4 1.932 1.880 1.792 1.660 1.495
5 1.943 1.900 1.825 1.707 1.550
6 1.950 1.914 1.849 1.743 1.594
7 1.956 1.924 1.866 1.770 1.630
8 1.960 1.932 1.880 1.792 1.660
9 1.963 1.938 1.891 1.810 1.685
10 1.966 1.943 1.900 1.825 1.707
11 1.968 1.947 1.907 1.838 1.726
12 1.970 1.950 1.914 1.849 1.743
13 1.971 1.953 1.919 1.858 1.757
14 1.973 1.956 1.924 1.866 1.770
15 1.974 1.958 1.928 1.874 1.782
16 1.975 1.960 1.932 1.880 1.792
17 1.976 1.962 1.935 1.886 1.801
18 1.976 1.963 1.938 1.891 1.810
19 1.977 1.965 1.941 1.896 1.818Looks like C close to 1 would be good for permanent board, something less than 1 for daily boards. Weekly and monthly, in between...
#!/usr/bin/env python
def ratio(games, C):
stakes = 10. # makes no difference
Q = float(C) * (stakes*games) / games
return (games * stakes * 1.99 + Q) / (games * stakes + Q)
print "games C=0.25 C=0.5 C=1 C=2 C=4"
for games in range(1, 20):
print "%2d %.3f %.3f %.3f %.3f %.3f" % ((games,) + tuple(ratio(games,C) for C in (0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4)))Hmm, I would take part, but Google Codejam round 2 starts at 2am my time and this is at 6am after a 90 min break. Makes it pretty hard to do both.
A lot of demand and not much supply.
I noticed that you could receive a prize even if you've played no games. Was that intentional? I had thought it was discussed before. It's not unfair though (you won't be winning back your buy-in).
Sadly these short contests are still awfully susceptible to collusion - with the 2 cent profit limit you can play 3 games and win $0.0297 profit, which seems like it's doomed to always be high up the scoreboard and make collusion profitable. Is the contest this weekend going to run for 3 hours? I think all the amulet contests we had showed that longer contests can work
Hah, I wasn't paying attention, but luckily I happened to finish off my last opponent a few seconds before the end of the contest, so managed to win back some of by buy-in. Contest ended and prizes paid between when I won and when I left. 
You didn't fix the 10 cent typo.
I'd love to see each possibility tried out. Next add a commentator ![]()
Don't have a microphone except on my very low spec netbook. Might look into that, but others were already reporting low frame rates on old PCs...
Awesome.
Hah, if both players record their game with sparse commentary, speaking less than half the time, conceivably you could show their two boards side by side and splice together the audio tracks. That would be fantastic but surely also a heap of work. Maybe try that later. (Actually, looking at the two boards at once is quite confusing. The colours are opposite, rotated, an in different places, even the score graphs don't match up, so they actually look very different. If you used the recordedGames file I guess you could mod the client to swap the colours or even rotate the board, and then playback the recorded game to record a new video, so that they're easy to compare.)
But which magic squares should be used? There seem to be specific magic squares (not just dimension of square) associated with each planet, and I imagine no one knows how they were originally arrived at. Here's an extensive example:
http://omega-magick.blogspot.co.nz/2012 … uares.html
But for sigils of demons and for other purposes, how should the magic square be chosen? There are all kinds of other properties they may have.
Sure you could run a $20 buy-in tournament for the 3.2% of the playerbase who can afford it. Running tournaments should also attract some bigger investments. But I think it would be insane not to also run plenty of lower stakes tournaments for the enjoyment of everyone else. (I wouldn't be entering a $20 one)
Nice article. Now I wonder what interesting patterns, sigils or otherwise, that one can derive from the magic squares. (Interactive webpage?)
What didn't it have that Steal Real Money did? Well, going viral is largely a matter of luck. One publication writes about it because they saw it in another. And a small difference of a few percent in the number of people who pass on word of something can easily make a difference between reaching 1000 or one million people. I see there's finally one nice CM video on Youtube (in German). It's a very thorough tutorial for the game and he shows off some bluffing, but doesn't explain his thought process for picking columns at all. Naturally the only person to comment says they don't have a credit card.
Having the chance to win far more than you're risking is surely the main appeal of gambling. Hence the excitement generated by CM tournaments. Erm, we haven't had one in a while. Weren't weekly tournaments floated as an idea? Think quiz night - a developed habit. (Run a poll? "What night of the week...")
It would also be possible to emulate the chance to win big from a single CM game. Such as bounties for defeating a player (like in some poker tournaments, I read). Basically the same thing as winning amulet points. Unfortunately, collusion....
Speaking in fragments. Four AM.
I wonder how much it would take for someone to part with a copper amulet. (Or even silver, since the silver isn't worth much.) I know a couple people who won cash prizes and would rather swap the cash for an amulet...
I don't see why the same couldn't work for CM (or online poker or two-player skill games): a few fish losing a lot of money, so that the pros randomly get paired up with other pros most of the time (breaking nearly even on average) and some of the time win off the fish, on the whole profiting.
That Japan Jackpot thing is pretty nuts. All kinds of roulette wheels and minigames, and half of them are physical!
Haha, great story.
I'm surprised to hear that a single $300 buyin can last you for 10 hours of playing despite being no-limit. In terms of average rate of profit or loss it sounds like it's not that different from playing dozens CM games for $15 each for 10 hours straight, despite having vastly more at stake. Interesting contrast.
I wonder to what degree interest in online poker would decrease if there wasn't anywhere to play it live (ie, as practice for the live game).
Hmm, it does indeed create the tables with those fields; you're right that there's nothing wrong. I probably accidentally created the databases with an earlier hg revision before switching to later version.
It looks like Stripe only supports credit cards, Apple Pay, and Bitcoin? (I can't understand what half the stuff on their website is talking about, though, looks like a hundred different ways to enter CC details.) That's too bad. There's got to be something out there that's trustworthy and can handle payments more generally. CCs used to be uncommon in New Zealand too until banks started introducing debit cards because of the situation online; I finally got one last year.